What 176 Sydney Agents See in the Market Right Now

I just finished surveying 176 top real estate agents across Sydney.

Wanted to share the results because they tell quite a different story to what you're probably reading in the headlines. Here's the reality on the ground.

The market is fractured.

Right now in late August, a property market participant's experience depends entirely on which part of Sydney they're in. 28.6% of agents see significant price corrections. 30.4% see cooling. 32.1% see no movement either way. And 8.9% see prices actually going up. Same Sydney. Four completely different directions.

The declines are deeper than reported.

Headlines vary but the consensus is that "Sydney" property prices have experienced low single digit percentage declines. The agents who actually sit across the table from buyers and sellers every week tell a different story.

19.6% report prices down 12–15%. Another 39.3% report down 8–11%. Another 26.8% report down 4–7%. Data lag is a thing and Sydney-wide median movements aren't useful. Participants buy suburbs, streets and property types, and right now there's a big divergence between all of these.

Interest rates and budget policy change aren't the whole story.

They're just two pieces of the puzzle driving seller and buyer behaviour. Participants are just as concerned with the economy in general, and local and international politics — but the single biggest factor is actually perceived affordability.

The outlook isn't gloom.

84% of agents forecast the market will either hold steady or improve from now through Christmas. Sales-people by nature tend to be an optimistic lot — especially when Spring is around the corner. However this consensus isn't that markets are improving so much as the worst seems to be behind us.

Data as close to the source as we can get.

Real estate agents are at the coal face — speaking to hundreds of buyers and sellers every week. This is data as close to the source as we can source, rather than information that's stale. Even Cotality, the gold standard in property research, can be months behind.

The gap between what you read and what's actually happening on the ground is wider than we think — and we think that in itself is worth acknowledging.